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Friday, January 15, 2010

This is how rich I would be

After spending even more time thinking about the ability to call my past self, I started to wonder how much money I could have made. I figure the most money I could muster at 15 would be 100 bucks, but the bigger problem would be finding a degenerate to place the bet for me. I also had to make some assumptions on odds since I couldn't find historical odds. Based on current odds for 2010, I estimate that the average eventual champion would be about 8-1 at the beginning of the year. So assuming that I could find a gambling fiend to place my bets while still underage, here's the payout:

1994: $100 bet at 8-1 = $900 (800 from the bet, plus the original 100 I bet); pay degenerate $100, save 300 since I may not fully trust my future self yet.
1995: $500 at 8-1 = 4500; pay degenerate 200; save 1000 (1300 total)
1996: $3000 at 8-1 = $27,000; pay degenerate 500; save 6500 (8800 total)
1997: $20,000 at 8-1 = $180,000; pay degenerate 5000; save 25,000 (33,800 total)
1998: $150,000 at 8-1 = 1,350,000; no longer pay degenerate since I am of legal age to bet; save 550,000 (583,800 total, which is now in a money market earning interest to pay my living expenses)
1999: 800,000 at 8-1 = 6,400,000; save 4.4 million;
at this point, I am not sure if a casino will allow you to book a bet for more than 1 million, so 2000-2004 is as follows:
2000-2004: 1,000,000 at 8-1= 9,000,000; save 8 million for google fund;
So in 2004 when Google IPO's I have 40 million to invest at the price of $85, which equals 470,000 shares. Let's say I am a coward and sell when it hits 600, I would now have 282 Million from google, plus a guaranteed 9 million until 2009 from the hoops bets. I'm pretty sure I could live comfortably on that.

At that point I would have no need to gamble anymore. So if someone out there can bend the laws of time and physics let me know. We could be really rich.

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